The Return of El Niño: Brace for More Extreme Weather and Global Disruption in 2023-2024
The climate alarm bells are ringing again for Sri Lanka’s vulnerable economy – El Niño has officially returned. Earlier this week, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) declared the onset of El Niño, the periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean. This marks the first appearance of El Niño since 2016, and scientists warn it could unleash extreme weather and climate chaos lasting well into 2024, disrupting Sri Lanka’s food and power supply. Unless climate change mitigation efforts are urgently scaled up, the country may face further economic turmoil from extreme weather impacts.
With the El Niño layered on top of steadily rising global temperatures due to climate change, the next 12 to 18 months could bring unprecedented heat, droughts, floods and storms across the globe. The impacts threaten to push vulnerable nations to the brink, potentially causing severe economic losses, food and water shortages, and electricity blackouts.
For an island nation like Sri Lanka already ravaged by economic turmoil, the arrival of El Niño couldn’t come at a worse time. The country relies heavily on its monsoonal rains between May and September to replenish its reservoirs and grow staple crops like rice. But El Niño tends to weaken monsoon rains, meaning Sri Lanka may be contending with worsening drought conditions through early to mid 2024. This would intensify the existing food, water and electricity shortages gripping the nation.
The Power and Peril of El Niño
El Niño refers to the periodic warming of ocean waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, which alters weather patterns across the tropics and beyond. The phenomenon typically lasts 9-12 months, reaching peak intensity between October and January before fading by April or May.
The term El Niño means “little boy” in Spanish, referring to the Christ child, as its effects often peak around Christmas. Every 2 to 7 years on average, the Pacific transitions from neutral conditions to El Niño, bringing warmer and wetter weather to some regions, and hotter, drier conditions to others.
The last major El Niño spanned 2015-2016. It became one of the strongest events on record, contributing to searing heat waves, devastating droughts and raging wildfires. El Niño fueled the hottest year ever recorded in 2016, wreaking an estimated $5.7 trillion in damage globally.
Now, all signs point to the current El Niño gaining steam in the months ahead. Scientists estimate a 90% chance it will persist into early 2024. The WMO warns we could see “more extreme weather events and record temperatures” over the next 6 to 12 months as the phenomenon intensifies.
Bracing for Global Disruption by Weather
El Niño acts as a wild card when it comes to weather. Global disruption by weather varies across different regions but tend to be felt most in the tropics. Here’s what we may see as this event unfolds:
- Record heat baking large swaths of the planet, with Southeast Asia and the Amazon rainforest at particular risk of extreme temperatures, droughts and fires.
- Intense storms and flooding associated with above-average rainfall in parts of the southern U.S., Peru, Chile and sections of east Africa.
- Prolonged drought worsening pre-existing water crises in southern Africa, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, northeast Brazil and sections of Central America.
- Multiple damaging tropical cyclones hitting islands in the Pacific and Indian Ocean basins. Coastal regions like eastern Australia, Japan, Taiwan and the Hawaiian Islands will need to brace for direct hits.
- Widespread coral bleaching episodes, which occur when overly warm ocean waters kill off corals. Two bouts of mass bleaching already struck the Great Barrier Reef in 2020 and 2022. El Niño may continue this trend.
In the U.S., El Niño could exacerbate drought across the Southwest, fueling the risk of catastrophic wildfires. But it may also bring beneficial rains and snowpack to southern California and other parched areas of the southern states. These fickle impacts make preparing difficult.
Daily sea surface temperature (°C) 1981 to 2023. Source: Climate Change Institute, University of Maine
World Pushing Past 1.5°C Limit
Most alarmingly, El Niño could temporarily nudge global temperatures above the critical 1.5°C warming threshold outlined in the Paris Climate Agreement. With the climate already 1.2°C warmer than pre-industrial levels, even a small temperature spike on top of that brings severe consequences.
Passing the 1.5°C limit, even briefly, would unleash more irreversible changes like melting glaciers, rising seas and increasing extreme weather. It also boosts the odds of passing tipping points in the climate system that would lock in further warming and disruption. This El Niño may offer just enough of a push to blow past 1.5°C, if only for a short period.
But as greenhouse gas emissions continue rising, these temporary surges above 1.5°C during El Niño events will become more frequent. Within a few decades, 1.5°C could become the norm year-round if decisive climate action isn’t taken immediately.
Costly Impacts on Sri Lankan Economy
For vulnerable countries like Sri Lanka, El Niño’s arrival couldn’t be more poorly timed. Sri Lankan Economy is already reeling from a painful economic crisis marked by food shortages, power cuts and civil unrest. The collapse of tourism and foreign investment during the pandemic erased crucial sources of government revenue.
The Sri Lankan economy will have a hard time bouncing back from the weather impact after facing an economic crisis. El Niño will affect all layers of the country.
Now, El Niño threatens to exacerbate Sri Lanka’s woes by weakening the annually critical Southwest Monsoon. If the June-September rains disappoint as expected, the country may contend with deepening drought, water scarcity and agricultural losses through 2024.
Rice yields could plummet without adequate monsoon rains to supply moisture and fill irrigation tanks. Other crops like vegetables, fruit and tea may also suffer sharp declines. This would further compromise food security and self-sufficiency in a nation already struggling to feed itself.
Prolonged drought would also limit hydropower output, as reservoir levels drop. This may mean lengthier power cuts and increased reliance on expensive fuel imports to run backup generators. These additional energy costs could deal another blow to citizens and businesses already reeling from blackouts and sky-high inflation.
Sri Lanka’s economy remains in a fragile state after defaulting on its debts earlier this year. Unexpected climate shocks from El Niño could derail hopes of recovery, while deepening hardship for vulnerable communities and Sri Lanka’s Future.
Urgent Action Needed About Extreme Weather
Extreme weather fueled by El Niño and climate change serves as a stark warning – urgent action is needed to prepare vulnerable nations and reduce carbon emissions. Here are 3 critical steps world leaders must take:
- Ramp up funding for disaster preparedness and early warning systems in exposed developing nations. This can save lives and minimize economic damages when extreme weather hits.
- Support initiatives that boost climate resilience and food/water security in susceptible regions. Examples include improving water storage and irrigation, transitioning to drought-tolerant crops, and conserving/restoring ecosystems.
- Rapidly transition away from fossil fuels while boosting renewable energy sources. This is key to avoiding the worst climate change scenarios.
Companies also bear responsibility to reduce their carbon footprints and partner with climate-focused organizations. Firms like Bio Credit Globe help businesses measure emissions, offset unavoidable impacts, and implement decarbonization strategies aligned with climate science.
The Time to Act is Now
Rather than getting caught up in debates over who bears the most blame for climate change, or which nations need to cut emissions the most, the time has come for a unified global effort. Developed and developing countries alike must set aside finger-pointing and work cooperatively to mitigate climate impacts. Regardless of past or present responsibilities, every nation has a role to play in driving down emissions, adapting to change, and supporting those most vulnerable. With El Niño worsening extreme weather ahead, finding common ground is no longer just idealism – it’s an urgent necessity for climate change mitigation.
The arrival of El Niño signals that climate chaos will intensify before it gets better. But it doesn’t have to remain this way. We still have a narrow window to act decisively and steer the planet toward a more sustainable path.
The warning signs are clear. The solutions exist. Now it’s up to each of us – individuals, businesses, nonprofits and governments – to summon the willpower and cooperation to bring forth real change. Our shared future depends on it.
